J,P, 摩根 中国互联网垂直细分报告：保持垂直，着眼长远
2020-02-27 117浏览
- 1.Asia Pacific Equity Research 29 August 2018 China Internet Vertical Staying vertical, eyeing long term We assume coverage of China Internet vertical names – Bitauto, Autohome, Fang Holdings, Leju – as well as Weibo, Sina, China Literature and Phoenix New Media. China Internet verticals have generally underperformed overall China Internet by 50ppts and HSI by 36ppts since 2015 due to the industry's structural change and internal causes of verticals. However, we think the core competitive strength of verticals, i.e. access to a more-targeted and intention-specific user base, remains unchanged. We take a constructive view on China's online vertical sector in light of its 1) unique media value for consumers, advertisers and value chain partners (e.g. dealers and agents), 2) LT growth potential from the massive transaction opportunities. Between auto and real estate verticals, we prefer online auto (BITA and ATHM) given a relatively steady legacy business outlook (JPMe 18-20E CAGR of 12%/19% for BITA/ATHM’s ad and dealer subscription revenue), less regulatory risk, and a promising auto related transaction opportunity (JPMe 1820E CAGR of 39%/42% for BITA/ATHM’s transaction services revenue). We are relatively cautious on online real estate names (SFUN and LEJU) in 6-12 months due to a lackluster legacy business (JPMe 18-20E CAGR of 6%/8% for SFUN/LEJU’s online ad revenue) and lack of new growth engines in the foreseeable future. Onlineauto:steady outlook of legacy business while transaction services bring potential upside. We expect ATHM and BITA to maintain relatively stable wallet share in total online ad auto spending in the next few years (32-33% from 2017-20E). Importantly, we believe online auto industry is quickly moving from legacy ads and subscription business driven to focus more on transactions. Our base case scenario suggests auto related transactions (financing, insurance, aftermarket services and used car markets) will generate an RMB70-100bn revenue opportunity for online platforms by 2020E, implying a US$50bn market cap potential in total. We forecast BITA to achieve 10-15% (RMB10bn) of total transaction revenue opportunity by 2020E, while ATHM’s presence is likely to remain relatively low at 1-2% given limited visibility. Online realestate:lackluster outlook for legacy business with transaction initiatives still in a trial-and-error stage. We believe online real estate will continue to rely on legacy business in the foreseeable future. While trials in real estate ecommerce may continue, we do not expect it to become a meaningful revenue driver in the next 1-2 years. We estimate SFUN and LEJU have continued to lose market share in online real estate ads in the past few years and such a trend should continue in the next few years due to increasing competition. Listing service is likely to see some near-term upside driven by growth in lower tier cities, which should bring support to SFUN. View and stockpicks:We like BITA (OW) and ATHM (N) given large potential in auto-related transactions opportunity, but prefer BITA over ATHM due to 1) BITA's leading position in auto financing and other auto related services, and 2) more attractive valuation (12x 19E P/E vs. 20x of ATHM). We believe online real estate players, i.e. SFUN (N) and LEJU (N), will remain fundamentally weak due to policy tightening, but we think the downside for both names is limited at current valuation. In addition, we like 1) WB (OW) due to its leadership in China's social media realm, under-monetized traffic and time spent; 2) Liepin (6100 HK, OW) for its unique position in China's mid-to-high-end talent acquisition market; 3) FENG (OW) due to valuation upside from Yidian. We are relatively cautious on China Literature (772 HK, N) in 3-6 months due to the binary impact from New Classics Media acquisition. Top picks are WB (OW), Liepin (6100 HK, OW) and BITA (OW). Key risks to ourthesis:1) Competition from various aspects, including competition from emerging traffic platforms on usage and ad budget, competition from private players on auto financing services; 2) Regulations on new home transaction, pricing, and auto financing channels. 3) Sector derating. Internet AC Binbin Ding (852) 2800 8572 binbin.ding@jpmorgan.com AC Alex Yao (852) 2800-8535 alex.yao@jpmorgan.com Bloomberg JPMA YAODaniel Chen (852) 2800-8579 daniel.q.chen@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited Figure 1: Total return since 2015: China Internet Verticals vs. China Internet and Hang Seng Index 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% Hang Seng Index China Internet Index China Internet Vertical IndexSource:J.P. Morgan estimates, Bloomberg. As of Aug 24th, 2018.Note:China Internet Index covers over 30 major China Internet stocks. China Internet Vertical Index covers 7 stocks including Bitauto, Autohome, Fang, Leju, Wise Talent, 51Job and 58.com. See page 74 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures. J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. www.jpmorganmarkets.com
- 2.Binbin Ding (852) 2800 8572 binbin.ding@jpmorgan.com Asia Pacific Equity Research 29 August 2018 Table of Contents Key charts and tables ..............................................................3 Investment summary................................................................5 Investment highlights ..............................................................................................5 Investment risks ......................................................................................................6 Summaryforecasts:JPM views by sub-sector and companies ..................................7 Share price analysis.................................................................8 Underperforming share price of Internet verticals in past years.................................8 What will drive the changes?.................................................................................10 Valuation summary ................................................................11 Different valuation approaches for vertical names..................................................13 Valuation by company...........................................................................................13 Online auto..............................................................................15 Offering the unique media value for advertisers .....................................................15 A deep-dive into auto advertising market...............................................................17 Auto ads market shareoutlook:winners and losers?...............................................20 Well positioned to tap into auto-related transactions opportunity............................21 Auto and relatedtransactions:quantifying the growth potential..............................23 Online real estate....................................................................28 Online real estate ads.............................................................................................28 Bumpy road into real estate transaction..................................................................30 Companies ..............................................................................33 Weibo Corporation................................................................................................34 Sina Corp..............................................................................................................39 China Literature Limited .......................................................................................44 Autohome Inc .......................................................................................................49 BitAuto Holdings Limited .....................................................................................54 Fang Holdings Ltd ................................................................................................58 Leju Holdings Limited ..........................................................................................62 Phoenix New Media Ltd........................................................................................66 Wise Talent Information Technology (Liepin) .......................................................70 2
- 3.Binbin Ding (852) 2800 8572 binbin.ding@jpmorgan.com Asia Pacific Equity Research 29 August 2018 Key charts and tables Figure 2: Positioning chart of China Internet verticals vs. other main information-focused platforms in China Content depth Bitauto Autohome Online verticals General news apps Leju SouFun iFeng News Sina News Tencent News Kuaibao Yidian UC Weibo Sogou Toutiao Baidu Other general informationgateways:search engines, socia media, social networks WeChat QQ Algorithm-based information apps User coverageSource:'>Source:
