2019FBIC 草本功能饮料Rebbl：产品魔力与商业模式造就品牌基因 David Batstone，Rebbl

2020-03-01 281浏览

1.REBBL Private and Confidential, 2018 2019 4
2.• Seasonality leads to depressed $ category volume and velocity in Q4. Expect category to boost in January, with strong performance lasting through August/September. • Kombucha is beginning to post losses vs YA in the natural channel. Kombucha distribution has spread widely across conventional grocery, leading to strong growth in Total US Food. • Refrigerated protein beverages are a strong growth category driver. REBBL has four of the top ten protein items in natural channel. Dark Chocolate Protein is the top SKU among protein offerings, and quickly rises up REBBL SKU rankings across channels/retailers. • Legacy natural juice brands are leading to declines in both natural & conventional grocery. Brands like Suja, Odwalla, Naked Juice, Bolthouse Farms are over-SKUed and inefficient on shelf. Target these brands for swap as they under-perform and account for significant shelf space. REBBL Private and Confidential, 2019 5
3.• REBBL brand growth holds steady at 9% in natural channel over the past 24 weeks. Elixirs are flattening and Proteins drive growth for the brand. REBBL velocity outpaces average category in Natural. • REBBL Proteins generate growth for the brand in Natural as Elixirs flatten. Protein beverages are a growing trend, and REBBL leads the way with top-performing SKUs. • Strong REBBL brand growth continues in Whole Foods, up +23% vs YA. Elixir growth slows as new distribution opportunities are limited. Proteins emerge as driver for the brand. Dark Chocolate Protein becomes top dollar volume REBBL item in WFM • REBBL more than doubles distribution in conventional grocery, fueling very strong dollar growth rates vs YA. Plenty of distribution runway still exists in channel. REBBL falls shy of category avg velocities in conventional. • REBBL fruit-forward SKUs slow to grow velocity in both natural and conventional channels. SKUs are dragging down total REBBL brand velocity. REBBL Private and Confidential, 2019 6
4.8 REBBL Private and Confidential, 2018 2019 8
5.Expect REBBL and competitive brands to sell less dollars and turn at lower velocities during Q4 Category performance will boost again in January, lasting through August/September 105 103 103 102 100 110 109 99 105 104 103 Avg Month $ Vol = 100 Index 99 97 95 89 90 87 85 Monthly Index vs Avg Month Monthly Index vs Avg Month 110 80 105 100 95 105 104 106 106 106 102 Avg Month $ Vol = 100 Index 101 100 98 94 91 90 88 85 80 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec December $s are 13% lower than monthly average Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec December $s are 12% lower than monthly average Dollar Index = Month $ Volume / Annual Monthly $ AvgSource:SPINS ScanningData:Total US Natural. Total US Food. 52WE 12/30/18 REBBL Private and Confidential, 2019 9
6.Despite strong distribution gains vs YA (+14 items), kombucha decreases -1.7% vs last year Kombucha grows to 94 average items on shelf. New SKUs overlap with current products, adding little/no incremental $s to sets Category and brand velocities for kombucha are dropping as sets expand Avg # Kombucha Items on Shelf vs Velocity (Total US Natural) GT KOMBUCHA KEVITA HEALTH ADE BREW DR KOMBUCHA LIVE SODA FARMHOUSE GUT SHOT PL KOMBUCHA HOLY KOMBUCHA THE BU WILD TONIC REVIVE KOMBUCHA HUMM KOMBUCHA SUJA NESSALLA BUCHI AQUA VITEA BUDDHAS BREW BETTER BOOCH ROWDY MERMAID $29,844,023 $14,950,634 $4,175,140 $2,812,360 $1,264,604 $708,853 $527,414 $502,563 $457,403 $444,160 $439,324 $356,356 $245,446 $148,046 $136,828 $136,027 $121,797 $119,275 $112,731 $105,286 REBBL Private and Confidential, 2019 -1.7% -2.1% -12.0% 34.0% -8.5% -12.2% -2.5% -22.7% 121.0% -9.0% -10.3% -18.6% -40.4% 29.9% -21.3% -13.6% 0.9% -14.3% 5.3% -13.8% ACV 98.3 98.3 87.3 83.3 39.6 62.6 63.4 28.1 36.2 42.8 42.6 15.7 19.6 29.5 4.3 6.7 3.6 1.6 12.5 5.6 ACV Chg vs YA 0.0 0.0 -0.2 11.1 -25.1 -1.1 2.2 -5.1 29.6 0.0 1.3 0.1 -5.9 -4.6 -0.4 -0.6 0.1 0.0 0.4 1.6 Avg # Items 94.5 31.6 14.8 8.1 11.1 6.0 3.8 18.0 5.9 5.5 3.6 7.5 5.9 5.4 8.3 5.9 7.8 12.7 3.4 3.3 Avg Items Chg vs YA 14.2 8.6 -0.4 2.0 4.9 -0.1 0.0 7.2 -0.7 0.1 -0.5 -1.4 -0.7 -0.5 0.5 0.2 -0.8 -0.4 0.3 -0.3 Avg U/S/W 5.8 8.4 7.0 7.7 3.8 5.2 2.2 3.2 5.2 4.9 4.3 4.0 2.8 1.5 4.2 3.9 8.3 3.5 6.7 6.6 Avg Kombucha Items on Shelf Avg U/S/W Chg YA Kombucha Avg U/S/W 11.0 200 180 -1.7 -4.5 9.4 9.2 8.1 160 7.9 8.7 7.9 8.5 -1.3 -1.1 -3.1 -0.7 -0.3 -3.4 -2.9 -0.9 -0.6 0.2 -1.6 0.4 -1.6 0.0 0.1 -1.0 8.2 7.5 9.0 7.7 140 7.3 5.8 120 95 100 80 60 40 63 71 68 70 74 79 80 81 85 91 94 7.0 5.0 3.0 1.0 20 0 -1.0 -1.5 -2.4 10 Avg U/S/W Total Kombucha & Fermented $ % Chg Avg # Items on Shelf $ Volume
7.Protein beverages are up +28.4% vs YA, outpacing all other sub-categories. REBBL Dark Chocolate Protein is the top-selling protein beverage. DCP turns at 6.2 U/S/W, above kombucha average of 5.8! REBBL has four of the top-ten protein beverage items in natural 1.2% Nat/Org Juice & Func Bev 24.7% CIDER VINEGAR DRINK 3.3% COCONUT WATER 2.0% OTHER CULTURED / FERMENTED BEV 0.3% ORANGE JUICE KOMBUCHA -0.6% JUICE (NON-ORANGE) -0.6% JUICE - FRUIT & VEG BLEND -1.5% LEMONADE / LIMEADE -16.7% REBBL Private and Confidential, 2019 UPC 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Rebbl Dark Choc Protein Drink Og 12oz Rebbl Vanilla Spice Protein Drink Og 12oz Koia Cacao Bean 12 Oz Odwalla Protein Monster Choc Ogc 15.2 Oz Koia Vanilla Bean 12 Oz Rebbl Cold Brew Coffee Protein Og 12oz Odwalla Vanilla Protein Shake 15.2 Oz Odwalla Strawberry Protein Shake 15.2 Oz Koia Coconut Almond 12 Oz Rebbl Banana Nut Protn Elxr Og 12oz Koia Cinnamon Horchata 12 Oz Bolthouse Prfct Protein Mocha Capp 15.2 Oz Bolthouse Perfect Prtn Purely Chocolate 15 Oz Odwalla Blueberry Protein Shake 15.2 Oz Naked Protein Zone Jce 15.2 Oz Bolthouse Protein Plus Mango 15.2 Oz Odwalla Chai Vanilla Protein Shake 15.2 Oz Truvibe Avocado Spinach & Hemp Juice 12oz Forager Project Nuts & Choc Shake Og 12oz Truvibe Berries Maca & Chia Juice Og 12 Oz 28.4% PROTEIN DRINK FUNCTIONAL JUICE & BEV Rank -2.9% Kombucha down in Total US Natural Total Protein Drinks $ Volume $% Chg U/S/W $3,838,679 28.4% 3.2 $581,710 $310,028 $294,533 $290,531 $260,438 $220,703 $211,405 $200,530 $179,507 $93,737 $86,970 $71,459 $69,806 $69,145 $68,353 $61,157 $58,678 $55,568 $52,307 $50,667 45.8% 23.4% New -10.5% New 120.6% 13.2% 22.7% New New New 8.9% 12.8% 2.7% -39.6% -12.9% -7.0% 25.2% 9.7% 44.1% 6.2 3.6 4.3 7.5 4.0 3.5 5.7 5.8 3.1 3.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 4.9 2.8 2.3 5.2 1.4 3.1 1.3 11
8.Kombucha grows to 44 average items on shelf, up +9 items vs last year. New kombucha distribution adds little to set. Educate retailers on trends and identify efficiencies for their sets. Kombucha & Fermented Dollar % Chg vs YA (Total US Food) 26.3% 24WE 12/30/18 Avg Kombucha Items on Shelf 19.0% 12WE 12/30/18 5.0 120 14.6% 4.3 100 4.5 3.8 3.9 Total Kombucha & Fermented GT KOMBUCHA KEVITA HEALTH ADE BREW DR HUMM KOMBUCHA SUJA KOMBUCHA PL KOMBUCHA BIG EASY BUCHA LIVE SODA BUCHA LIVE $% Chg ACV ACV Chg vs YA Avg # Item s Avg Items Chg vs YA Avg U/S/ W Avg U/S/ W Chg YA $82,319,510 14.6% 70.1 3.2 44.2 9.2 2.7 -0.6 $38,975,714 $17,848,729 $8,241,739 $3,094,792 $2,755,834 $2,128,982 $1,641,104 $874,710 $860,743 $478,858 5.5% 70.1 62.0 39.1 23.4 23.9 19.8 18.2 5.8 11.4 12.8 3.2 14.5 10.3 6.4 5.7 5.5 6.4 4.3 7.0 4.9 2.6 3.1 3.5 3.1 3.1 2.4 1.8 1.2 4.1 1.9 2.2 2.1 -1.3 REBBL Private and Confidential, 2019 3.6% 93.9% 31.7% 14.8% 120.5% 0.7% 67.3% -22.5% -19.8% 9.6 18.7 7.0 5.4 -2.4 -0.1 -0.5 1.5 1.5 -0.4 0.6 1.1 0.1 1.2 0.1 2.1 -1.3 -1.0 -0.4 0.0 -1.0 -0.5 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.5 0.1 Avg # Items on Shelf 3.5 3.5 $ Volume Kombucha Avg U/S/W 3.7 3.4 3.3 3.5 4.0 3.4 80 3.5 2.9 2.7 2.5 60 40 23 20 3.0 25 26 29 30 33 35 36 38 39 44 44 2.0 Avg U/S/W 52WE 12/30/18 1.5 1.0 0.5 0 0.0 12
9.REBBL Private and Confidential, 2018 2019 1 3 13
10.REBBL velocities (4.5 U/S/W) continue to outpace category average (5.1 U/S/W) in Natural Channel Legacy natural juice brands are down significantly vs YA (Suja, Odwalla, Naked Juice, Bolthouse Farms) Major kombucha brands (GT’s, Kevita, Brew Dr.) decline vs last year, as newer small brands steal sales from larger players Brand Nat/Org Juice & Func Bev $ Volume $% Chg % ACV Selling vs YA % ACV Selling Avg # Items vs YA Avg # Items U/S/W per Item U/S/W per Item vs YA % Dollars on Promo $ Dollars on Promo vs YA $106,533,210 1.2% 98.6 0.0 199.0 13.7 4.5 -0.6 35.3% -1.7 GT KOMBUCHA KEVITA HEALTH ADE $31,702,518 $9,021,505 $6,132,569 -1.9% -11.2% 52.5% 98.6 88.1 83.4 0.0 0.1 12.2 32.2 14.8 8.2 9.0 -0.6 2.0 8.8 7.5 8.7 -4.8 -1.4 0.6 39.5% 40.1% 53.6% 2.2 -10.8 -0.5 REBBL $5,421,735 9.0% 90.4 2.3 9.4 2.0 5.1 -1.4 41.2% -8.8 $4,778,344 $3,797,247 $3,090,517 $2,786,614 $2,150,730 $2,065,835 $1,953,819 $1,646,060 $1,617,863 $1,465,660 $1,353,025 $1,223,293 $1,181,406 $1,162,769 $1,086,033 $999,972 $961,842 $898,647 4.7% 20.0% 2.7% -4.7% -4.9% -11.1% -6.8% -23.4% -8.1% 27.6% -7.8% -10.5% new 152.0% -0.3% 1.9% -13.9% 319.7% 90.8 82.0 68.0 40.7 53.9 54.5 77.9 49.0 63.9 56.7 40.1 15.1 30.6 36.5 64.2 43.5 43.1 47.6 0.6 -3.4 2.6 -24.2 -0.1 -1.5 0.3 0.5 -0.3 17.3 -0.6 -2.3 30.6 29.8 3.9 0.3 1.8 39.0 2.9 6.4 11.6 10.9 11.2 10.0 7.6 9.7 6.1 3.4 13.3 15.8 9.8 6.0 4.0 5.5 3.7 4.1 -0.1 3.0 0.2 4.6 -1.8 -2.4 -0.3 -3.2 -0.1 -0.4 0.5 -5.6 9.8 -0.8 -0.2 0.0 -0.5 1.0 10.7 3.4 2.8 4.1 2.4 4.9 2.8 2.9 5.9 4.0 2.3 4.2 3.4 7.1 2.4 5.8 4.7 3.2 -0.1 -2.4 -0.2 -3.0 0.0 0.6 -0.1 -0.3 -0.6 -0.9 -0.1 1.3 3.4 -1.8 0.0 0.1 -0.9 0.6 39.6% 23.1% 33.0% 44.1% 23.1% 43.8% 33.6% 11.6% 48.7% 16.9% 17.3% 17.0% 1.7% 61.5% 27.0% 66.4% 14.3% 53.3% -4.0 3.1 -3.6 8.5 -3.4 5.0 -1.0 -3.8 3.4 -12.8 12.5 -27.1 new 18.2 -5.7 5.6 -17.0 7.1 HARMLESS HARVEST UNCLE MATTS EVOLUTION BREW DR KOMBUCHA SUJA JUICE ODWALLA GOODBELLY NAKED JUICE LIVE SODA EVOLUTION BOLTHOUSE FARMS COLUMBIA GORGE PRESSED JUICERY HOLY KOMBUCHA FARMHOUSE GUT SHOT THE BU WILD TONIC KOIASource:SPINS ScanningData:Total US Natural REBBL Private and Confidential, 2019 14
11.Fruit-forward items drag down REBBL brand velocity. Monitor progress & consider swap for future line-extensions TGM, CBP, MM, RCB are declining vs YA, but velocities remain strong on these SKUs REBBL SKU Performance Summary REBBL Avg (Total WFM - 24WE 1/06/19) UPC Total REBBL REBBL Elixirs Reishi Chocolate Turmeric Golden Milk Maca Mocha Matcha Latte Reishi Cold Brew Coffee Maca Cold Brew Coffee 3 Roots Mango Spice Schizandra Berries & Crème Ashwagandha Chai Turmeric Lemon Crème REBBL Proteins Dark Choc Protein Cold Brew Coffee Protein Vanilla Spice Protein Banana Nut Protein $ Volume $% Chg $5,365,480 22.8% $3,587,834 9.5% $681,028 7.9% $584,250 -2.2% $542,246 -9.0% $390,504 17.9% $387,928 -2.5% $287,236 0.0% $199,281 NEW $197,690 NEW $173,810 -16.3% $143,861 -37.0% $1,736,360 59.0% $693,923 96.4% $450,059 -19.9% $331,250 88.0% $261,128 NEW Reishi Chocolate % Stores Selling 100% 100% 100% 98% 99% 96% 92% 81% 99% 99% 93% 82% 99% 99% 98% 99% 98% U/S/W 10.7 11.0 18.4 16.3 12.5 11.1 11.0 12.5 6.0 5.9 8.4 5.3 10.1 15.0 10.0 8.7 6.8 18.4 Turmeric Golden Milk 16.3 Dark Choc Protein 15.0 Maca Mocha 14.8 Maca Cold Brew Coffee 12.5 Matcha Latte Elixir 11.2 Reishi Cold Brew Coffee 11.0 Cold Brew Coffee Protein 10.0 Vanilla Spice Protein 8.7 Ashwagandha Chai 8.4 Banana Nut Protein 6.8 3 Roots Mango Spice 6.0 Schizandra Berries & Creme 5.9 Tumeric Lemon Crème REBBL Private and Confidential, 2019 10.7 5.3 15
12.REBBL more than doubles distribution, growing to 13.1 % ACV in conventional Legacy natural juice brands down in conventional, just as in the natural channel (Bolthouse, Naked, Odwalla, Suja, Newman’s) Kombucha brands grow dollars, due to distribution expansion Brand Nat/Org Juice & Func Bev $ Volume $% Chg % ACV Selling vs YA % ACV Selling Avg # Items vs YA Avg # Items U/S/W per Item U/S/W per Item vs YA % Dollars on Promo $ Dollars on Promo vs YA $517,155,721 3.8% 79.6 -0.7 132.8 1.2 1.9 0.0 35.5% 2.5 BOLTHOUSE FARMS GT KOMBUCHA NAKED JUICE KEVITA ODWALLA POM WONDERFUL HEALTH ADE SUJA JUICE NEWMANS OWN HARMLESS HARVEST BREW DR KOMBUCHA GOODBELLY HUMM KOMBUCHA ODWALLA WTRMLN WTR SUJA KOMBUCHA EVOLUTION BOLTHOUSE 1915 UNCLE MATTS $93,488,841 $82,374,583 $79,682,805 $37,514,565 $35,910,956 $35,167,460 $16,494,589 $12,952,891 $11,491,768 $7,785,693 $6,755,175 $5,712,125 $5,664,959 $4,580,455 $4,421,665 $4,354,157 $4,032,281 $3,869,774 $3,865,985 -4.6% 8.9% -4.2% 9.1% -2.8% -1.0% 123.6% -2.0% -11.7% 24.3% 50.8% -11.7% 8.5% -7.2% 44.9% 122.1% -17.2% -8.8% 38.0% 70.5 70.5 79.3 61.8 52.6 78.0 38.7 40.4 42.3 36.5 24.8 41.8 23.9 21.9 35.1 19.7 17.5 21.3 23.8 0.9 4.7 -0.7 11.2 1.2 -0.9 21.5 -0.3 -2.8 5.0 12.5 -0.9 6.6 -3.1 4.9 -3.2 1.2 -2.2 -1.5 28.6 14.8 18.2 10.4 13.4 5.8 6.5 9.4 2.6 2.2 5.7 4.8 5.7 1.6 3.6 6.8 6.3 6.7 3.7 -1.9 2.8 -1.8 -0.5 -2.1 0.0 0.7 -1.0 -0.1 0.0 1.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.2 1.3 -3.9 -0.2 2.2 2.1 3.6 2.1 3.2 3.4 2.2 3.1 1.4 6.7 3.6 2.2 1.6 1.8 4.3 1.5 1.2 2.0 1.8 1.5 0.0 -1.1 0.1 -0.3 0.6 -0.1 0.4 0.0 -0.6 0.0 -1.0 -0.1 -0.7 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.2 -1.1 38.6% 31.7% 32.3% 41.4% 59.6% 20.1% 37.9% 42.3% 19.6% 32.8% 34.3% 33.8% 43.1% 59.3% 45.9% 45.0% 35.5% 52.1% 10.3% 6.0 5.9 0.3 4.6 -1.0 -3.5 -3.6 4.4 5.5 7.6 0.4 5.1 6.3 -1.2 6.4 5.8 -5.4 2.2 -13.1 REBBL $2,686,147 178.8% 13.1 8.3 4.8 -0.1 1.6 0.0 26.2% 9.1 $2,467,362 $1,955,011 $1,731,545 -27.4% -19.4% 727.5% 26.8 11.5 12.0 -3.2 1.2 9.8 3.6 5.5 4.1 -0.8 -1.2 0.9 1.4 2.2 1.6 0.0 -0.4 0.7 35.0% 31.0% 29.5% -0.3 6.1 9.4 MAMMA CHIA LIVE SODA KOIASource:SPINS ScanningData:Total US Natural REBBL Private and Confidential, 2019 16
13.REBBL average velocities include all UPCs, lower-performing items can lower total REBBL velocity Focus distribution expansion on top-velocity SKUs in order to protect and grow velocities 4.5 Total US Natural Avg 10.7 HARMLESS HARVEST 8.8 8.7 GT KOMBUCHA HEALTH ADE 7.5 7.1 KEVITA HOLY KOMBUCHA 5.9 5.8 LIVE SODA THE BU 5.1 4.9 REBBL ODWALLA 4.2 4.1 COLUMBIA GORGE BREW DR KOMBUCHA UNCLE MATTS PRESSED JUICERY KOIA NAKED JUICE GOODBELLY EVOLUTION FARMHOUSE GUT SHOT SUJA JUICE FORAGER PROJECT BOLTHOUSE FARMS 3.4 3.4 3.2 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 Category Avg Total US Food Avg NEWMANS OWN ODWALLA GT KOMBUCHA HARMLESS HARVEST ODWALLA KEVITA HEALTH ADE BREW DR KOMBUCHA LIVE SODA POM WONDERFUL BOLTHOUSE FARMS NAKED JUICE EVOLUTION BOLTHOUSE 1915 HUMM KOMBUCHA REBBL GOODBELLY KOIA WTRMLN WTR UNCLE MATTS MAMMA CHIA SUJA JUICE SUJA KOMBUCHA NAKED PRESSED FORAGER PROJECT 1.9 6.7 4.3 3.6 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 Category AvgSource:SPINS ScanningData:Total US Food & Total US Natural. 24WE 12/30/18 REBBL Private and Confidential, 2019 17
14.Focus distribution expansion on top-velocity SKUs Support top SKUs with secondary off-shelf during promotion Grow facing for fastest turners… RC, TGM, MM, MCB & DCP 7.6 7.0 5.1 REBBL Private and Confidential, 2019 6.6 6.4 Slower-turning SKUs fall below 4.5 U/S/W category average 6.2 4.6 4.5 4.2 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.1 2.5 18
15.Dark Chocolate Protein rises to top-velocity SKU in conventional grocery. REBBL proteins perform stronger in conventional vs natural. Expand conventional distribution on Proteins. 1.9 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.2 * 1.1 * 0.9 * 0.9 * 0.5 *Source:SPINS ScanningData:Total US Food. REBBL Private and Confidential, 2019 * 0.5 * 0.5 * Low Distribution in Conventional 19